S.A.Silvic

A Global Warming Chronology

1800-1870 

Level of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) in the atmosphere, as later measured in ancient ice, is about 290 ppm (parts per million).

Mean global temperature (1850-1870) is about 13.6°C.

First Industrial Revolution. Coal, railroads, and land clearing speed up greenhouse gas emission, while better agriculture and sanitation speed up population growth.

1824

Fourier calculates that the Earth would be far colder if it lacked an atmosphere.

1859

Tyndall discovers that some gases block infrared radiation. He suggests that changes in the concentration of the gases could bring climate change.

1896 

Arrhenius publishes first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO2.

1897 

Chamberlin produces a model for global carbon exchange including feedbacks.

1870-1910 

Second Industrial Revolution. Fertilizers and other chemicals, electricity, and public health further accelerate growth.

1914-1918 

World War I; governments learn to mobilize and control industrial societies.

1920-1925 

Opening of Texas and Persian Gulf oil fields inaugurates era of cheap energy.

1930s 

Global warming trend since late 19th century reported.

Milankovitch proposes orbital changes as the cause of ice ages.

1938 

Callendar argues that CO2 greenhouse global warming is underway, reviving interest in the question.

1939-1945 

World War II. Military grand strategy is largely driven by a struggle to control oil fields.

1945 

US Office of Naval Research begins generous funding of many fields of science, some of which happen to be useful for understanding climate change.

1956 

Ewing and Donn offer a feedback model for quick ice age onset.

Phillips produces a somewhat realistic computer model of the global atmosphere.

Plass calculates that adding CO2 to the atmosphere will have a significant effect on the radiation balance. 

1957 

Launch of Soviet Sputnik satellite. Cold War concerns support 1957-58 International Geophysical Year, bringing new funding and coordination to climate studies.

Revelle finds that CO2 produced by humans will not be readily absorbed by the oceans.

1958 

Telescope studies show a greenhouse effect raises temperature of the atmosphere of Venus far above the boiling point of water.

1960 

Mitchell reports downturn of global temperatures since the early 1940s.

Keeling accurately measures CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere and detects an annual rise. The level is 315 ppm. Mean global temperature (five-year average) is 13.9°C.

1962 

Cuban Missile Crisis, peak of the Cold War.

1963 

Calculations suggest that feedback with water vapor could make the climate acutely sensitive to changes in CO2 level.

1965 

Boulder, Colo. meeting on causes of climate change: Lorenz and others point out the chaotic nature of climate system and the possibility of sudden shifts.

1966 

Emiliani’s analysis of deep-sea cores and Broecker’s analysis of ancient corals show that the timing of ice ages was set by small orbital shifts, suggesting that the climate system is sensitive to small changes.

1967 

International Global Atmospheric Research Program established, mainly to gather data for better short-range weather prediction, but including climate.

Manabe and Wetherald make a convincing calculation that doubling CO2 would raise world temperatures a couple of degrees.

1968 

Studies suggest a possibility of collapse of Antarctic ice sheets, which would raise sea levels catastrophically.

1969 

Astronauts walk on the Moon, and people perceive the Earth as a fragile whole.

Budyko and Sellers present models of catastrophic ice-albedo feedbacks.

Nimbus III satellite begins to provide comprehensive global atmospheric temperature measurements.

1970 

First Earth Day. Environmental movement attains strong influence, spreads concern about global degradation.

Creation of US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the world’s leading funder of climate research.

Aerosols from human activity are shown to be increasing swiftly. Bryson claims they counteract global warming and may bring serious cooling.

1971 

SMIC conference of leading scientists reports a danger of rapid and serious global change caused by humans, calls for an organized research effort.

Mariner 9 spacecraft finds a great dust storm warming the atmosphere of Mars, plus indications of a radically different climate in the past.

1972 

Ice cores and other evidence show big climate shifts in the past between relatively stable modes in the space of a thousand years or so, especially around 11,000 years ago.

Droughts in Africa, Ukraine, India cause world food crisis, spreading fears about climate change.

1973 

Oil embargo and price rise bring first “energy crisis”.

1974 

Serious droughts since 1972 increase concern about climate, with cooling from aerosols suspected to be as likely as warming; scientists are doubtful as journalists talk of a new ice age.

1975 

Warnings about environmental effects of airplanes leads to investigations of trace gases in the stratosphere and discovery of danger to ozone layer.

Manabe and collaborators produce complex but plausible computer models which show a temperature rise of several degrees for doubled CO2. 

1976 

Studies show that CFCs (1975) and also methane and ozone (1976) can make a serious contribution to the greenhouse effect.

Deep-sea cores show a dominating influence from 100,000-year Milankovitch orbital changes, emphasizing the role of feedbacks.

Deforestation and other ecosystem changes are recognized as major factors in the future of the climate.

Eddy shows that there were prolonged periods without sunspots in past centuries, corresponding to cold periods.

1977 

Scientific opinion tends to converge on global warming, not cooling, as the chief climate risk in next century.

1978 

Attempts to coordinate climate research in US end with an inadequate National Climate Program Act, accompanied by rapid but temporary growth in funding.

1979 

Second oil “energy crisis.” Strengthened environmental movement encourages renewable energy sources, inhibits nuclear energy growth. 

US National Academy of Sciences report finds it highly credible that doubling CO2 will bring 1.5-4.5°C global warming.

World Climate Research Programme launched to coordinate international research.

1981 

Election of Reagan brings backlash against environmental movement to power. Political conservatism is linked to skepticism about global warming.

IBM Personal Computer introduced. Advanced economies are increasingly delinked from energy.

Hansen and others show that sulfate aerosols can significantly cool the climate, raising confidence in models showing future greenhouse warming.

Some scientists predict greenhouse warming “signal” should be visible by about the year 2000.

1982 

Greenland ice cores reveal drastic temperature oscillations in the space of a century in the distant past.

Strong global warming since mid-1970s is reported, with 1981 the warmest year on record.

1983 

Reports from US National Academy of Sciences and Environmental Protection Agency spark conflict, as greenhouse warming becomes prominent in mainstream politics.

1985

Ramanathan and collaborators announce that global warming may come twice as fast as expected, from rise of methane and other trace greenhouse gases.

Villach Conference declares consensus among experts that some global warming seems inevitable, calls on governments to consider international agreements to restrict emissions.

Antarctic ice cores show that CO2 and temperature went up and down together through past ice ages, pointing to powerful biological and geochemical feedbacks.

Broecker speculates that a reorganization of North Atlantic Ocean circulation can bring swift and radical climate change.

1987

Montreal Protocol of the Vienna Convention imposes international restrictions on emission of ozone-destroying gases.

1988 

News media coverage of global warming leaps upward following record heat and droughts plus testimony by Hansen.

Toronto conference calls for strict, specific limits on greenhouse gas emissions; UK Prime Minister Thatcher is first major leader to call for action.

Ice-core and biology studies confirm living ecosystems give climate feedback by way of methane, which could accelerate global warming.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is established.

1989

Fossil-fuel and other U.S. industries form Global Climate Coalition to tell politicians and the public that climate science is too uncertain to justify action.

1990

First IPCC report says world has been warming and future warming seems likely.

1991

Mt. Pinatubo explodes; Hansen predicts cooling pattern, verifying (by 1995) computer models of aerosol effects.

Global warming skeptics claim that 20th-century temperature changes followed from solar influences. (The solar-climate correlation would fail in the following decade.)

Studies from 55 million years ago show possibility of eruption of methane from the seabed with enormous self-sustained warming.

1992

Conference in Rio de Janeiro produces UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, but US blocks calls for serious action.

Study of ancient climates reveals climate sensitivity in same range as predicted independently by computer models.

1993

Greenland ice cores suggest that great climate changes (at least on a regional scale) can occur in the space of a single decade.

1995

Second IPCC report detects “signature” of human-caused greenhouse effect warming, declares that serious warming is likely in the coming century.

Reports of the breaking up of Antarctic ice shelves and other signs of actual current warming in polar regions begin affecting public opinion.

1997

Toyota introduces Prius in Japan, first mass-market electric hybrid car; swift progress in large wind turbines and other energy alternatives.

International conference produces Kyoto Protocol, setting targets for industrialized nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions if enough nations sign onto a treaty (rejected by US Senate in advance).

1998

“Super El Niño” causes weather disasters and warmest year on record (approximately matched by 2005 and 2007). Borehole data confirm extraordinary warming trend.

Qualms about arbitrariness in computer models diminish as teams model ice-age climate and dispense with special adjustments to reproduce current climate.

1999

Criticism that satellite measurements show no warming are dismissed by National Academy Panel.

Ramanathan detects massive “brown cloud” of aerosols from South Asia.

2000

Global Climate Coalition dissolves as many corporations grapple with threat of warming, but oil lobby convinces US administration to deny problem.

Variety of studies emphasize variability and importance of biological feedbacks in carbon cycle, liable to accelerate warming.

2001

Third IPCC report states baldly that global warming, unprecedented since end of last ice age, is “very likely,” with possible severe surprises. Effective end of debate among all but a few scientists.

Bonn meeting, with participation of most countries but not US, develops mechanisms for working towards Kyoto targets.

National Academy panel sees a “paradigm shift” in scientific recognition of the risk of abrupt climate change (decade-scale).

Warming observed in ocean basins; match with computer models gives a clear signature of greenhouse effect warming.

2002

Studies find surprisingly strong “global dimming,” due to pollution, has retarded arrival of greenhouse warming, but dimming is now decreasing.

2003

Numerous observations raise concern that collapse of ice sheets (West Antarctica, Greenland) can raise sea levels faster than most had believed.

Deadly summer heat wave in Europe accelerates divergence between European and US public opinion.

2004

First major books, movie and art work featuring global warming appear.

2005

Kyoto treaty goes into effect, signed by major industrial nations except US. Work to retard emissions accelerates in Japan, Western Europe, US regional governments and corporations.

Hurricane Katrina and other major tropical storms spur debate over impact of global warming on storm intensity.

2006

In longstanding “hockey stick” controversy, scientists conclude post-1980 global warming was unprecedented for centuries or more.

“An Inconvenient Truth” documentary persuades many but sharpens political polarization.

2007

Fourth IPCC report warns that serious effects of warming have become evident; cost of reducing emissions would be far less than the damage they will cause.

Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and Arctic Ocean sea-ice cover found to be shrinking faster than expected.

2009

Many experts warn that global warming is arriving at a faster and more dangerous pace than anticipated just a few years earlier.

Excerpts from stolen e-mails of climate scientists fuel public skepticism.

Copenhagen conference fails to negotiate binding agreements: end of hopes of avoiding dangerous future climate change.

Level of CO2 in the atmosphere reaches 385 ppm.

Mean global temperature (five-year average) is 14.5°C, the warmest in hundreds, and probably thousands of years.

Pasted from : http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.htm#contents

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Amelanchier

NOAA's National Weather Outlook 2011